The Big Debate: Will the 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Continue?
For more than ten years, people in crypto have used the 4-year Bitcoin cycle to make sense of the market. Each bull and bear market seemed to be linked to Bitcoin’s halving, with peaks in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
But things might be different now. Big players like BlackRock and Fidelity are entering the crypto space, so the market might not follow the old cycles as closely. A lot of regular investors still think the 4-year cycle will control what happens this time, but history tells us that when everyone expects the same thing, it usually doesn't occur.
Retail Investor Sentiment: Preparing for a Q4 Pump
Across crypto Twitter and retail communities, one theme stands out: expectations of a final Q4 rally followed by a major sell-off.
This collective mindset itself can influence price action. If a large portion of retail investors sell at the same time, it could create a sharp dip, possibly triggering the very “top” they expect. On the flip side, this wave of selling could hand cheap coins to institutions and whales, fueling a slower but longer bull market.
Why Regular Investors Still Follow the 4-Year Cycle
Even with all the ups and downs in the market, lots of everyday investors still watch the 4-year cycle. So, why do they do it?
For starters, it makes the market seem more organized. This cycle gives you a basic structure in what can feel like a crazy market. The idea that there's a pattern that repeats—going up, hitting its highest point, and then going down—is attractive because it suggests that things aren't completely unpredictable.
Past errors are also a big factor. Many investors remember when Bitcoin was supposed to hit $100,000 in 2021, but it didn't happen. Big stuff like the Luna and FTX blowups stick in people's minds, and nobody wants to lose money like that again.
The high cost of living is another reason. With prices going up faster than salaries, many people worry about another long slump. They want to make money faster, which makes the 4-year cycle look like a safer bet, even if it's not as reliable as it used to be.
What the Future Holds for the Market
We see two main ways the market could go. First, there's the idea that everyone expects a downturn every four years. If regular investors think the end of the year is the peak, they might sell off their investments all at once. This could cause a price drop, and people might panic and think a bear market is here, causing the downturn they feared.
On the other hand, the cycle could last longer. Even if regular investors sell, big institutions like Wall Street or company treasuries might buy up those assets. Their buying power could stop the market from crashing. Prices would then rise gradually, and the bull market could continue past 2025, maybe into 2026.
Crypto's Next Move: What's Coming?
Regular investors seem to be acting as they have before, but big institutions might be changing the game without us noticing. The next few months will be key in seeing if crypto follows its usual pattern or if we are entering a long-term growth period.
What's your take? Do you think the fourth quarter will be the top, or are we already heading into something different? Don't forget to do your homework before making any investment decisions.
